On Friday, Disney’s prequel and follow-up to 2019’s The Lion King slightly outperformed Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 at the domestic box office, grossing $232.7 million, a performance no one expected after a slow start at the Christmas box office.
And by Sunday, its global total will be over $670 million, with plans to reach $700 million against a production budget of $200 million or more before marketing.
Not to say that Sonic 3 isn’t a big success. It earned a franchise-high $231.7 million domestically through Friday and $463.7 million internationally against a $122 million production budget. It is quite rare for a threequel to earn 20% more than the preceding title in the series, indicating that it is a growth property that would make any competing studio see green.
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Rather, this is about Mufasa’s impressive staying power, thanks to strong word of mouth, viral marketing, and a longer exclusive theatrical window, even if the prequel will never match The Lion King, which exceeded all expectations by grossing $1.66 billion globally just months before the COVID pandemic struck and changed box office history for good.
Just as critics questioned if Jon Favreau’s Lion King remake would succeed, many dismissed Mufasa after it was trounced by Sonic 3 over the Dec. 20-22 weekend. The Disney film grossed $35.4 million in its American opening, compared to $64.4 million for Sonic 3. However, as families became more approachable after the presents were unwrapped on Christmas day, Mufasa discovered its voice. What has transpired since is even more astounding. However, unlike Sonic, there is no definite next installment.
Consider the following statistics: Mufasa was the number one or number two title for 36 of its first 38 days of release. To date, it has earned 6.5 times its opening revenue. That’s the third-highest multiple ever for a film showing on more than 3,000 theaters and debuting for less than $40 million, trailing only 2006’s Night at the Museum (8.2 multiple) and 2009’s The Blind Side (7.5 multiple), not adjusted for inflation.
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It’s also the only wide release since 2010 to exceed the $230 million mark in domestic ticket sales, despite opening to less than $40 million from 3,000 or more sites.
Mufasa will play exclusively in cinemas for 60 days before making its premium VOD debut on February 18. Many large studio titles went to premium VOD much earlier, like Sonic 3, which was available after 32 days. It is well established that a film can still do viable theatrical business after its release on PVOD — which can generate tens of millions of dollars in home entertainment revenue — but Disney insiders say a family film with broad appeal, such as Mufasa, which plays to younger kids, has benefited from a longer window because there is little competition and plenty of repeat business to be had.
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Sonic 3 experienced larger declines than Mufasa even before it got to PVOD, indicating that it had already reached the majority of its theatrical audience. Still, it has grossed more than $8 million in cinemas since its initial release, albeit it dropped out of the top five last weekend. Mufasa is expected to come in fourth place between February 7 and February 9.
While critics didn’t like Mufasa, crowds did. It has an A- CinemaScore, an 89 percent confirmed audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, and excellent exit scores on PostTrak among children and parents.
Mufasa and Sonic 3, both critical and public favorites, are PG-rated and have played key roles in the ongoing revival of the family box office, which was severely hampered by the epidemic.
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